Noncommunicable diseases (NCDs) are on the rise across low- and middle-income countries (LMICs), adding pressure to already complex health supply chains. Ensuring consistent, affordable access to essential NCD medicines remains a critical, and often under-addressed, priority.
In recent years, digital technologies have played an increasing role in improving visibility, coordination, and efficiency in public health supply chains. From mobile-based stock tracking to early-stage AI applications, digital solutions, when contextually applied, can support ministries and national partners in reducing stockouts, planning with greater certainty, and strengthening long-term system resilience.
This article outlines how digital tools are being used across different parts of the NCD supply chain, from forecasting to procurement to last-mile distribution. It also shares practical insights for Ministries of Health in LMICs considering the adoption of these technologies in line with national goals and local realities.
1. Strengthening Forecasting
Strategic planning depends on reliable, local data. Tools like District Health Information Software (DHIS2) or even Excel-based demand forecasting, when paired with pharmacy and consumption data, help align supply with true demand and avoid both shortages and waste.
AI-powered analytics are also emerging as a valuable layer in this process. These tools can process large data volumes from multiple sources (e.g. consumption trends, procurement history, and epidemiological data) to detect risks and recommend proactive solutions. When applied with nuanced knowledge of experts, AI can strengthen forecasting accuracy and help countries navigate demand fluctuations, even in constrained settings.
A real-life example:
In Kenya, health authorities have used DHIS2 not just to collect data, but to turn it into clear, visual summaries that support decision-making. County health teams used these visuals to show trends in primary health care services and advocate for more funding. In one example, a county’s Public Health Director explained how better data presentation helped them successfully defend their health budget and secure an extra 500 million Kenyan Shillings budget. To see how Kenya’s counties used DHSI2 in more detail, read this qualitative study.
Ministries in action: Define which data sources are relevant, and coordinate between public, private, and donor-led supply streams to build a more accurate national picture.
2. Managing Distribution and Last-Mile Delivery
Getting medicines to the right place at the right time remains a major challenge, especially at the last mile. Fragmented logistics networks, high transport costs, and a lack of visibility can lead to delays and stock imbalances.
Simple digital tools are making a difference. GPS-enabled fleet tracking, electronic proof of delivery (ePOD), and mobile route planning applications help improve delivery visibility. In some cases, WhatsApp delivery confirmations or SMS-based alerts are being used to bridge communication gaps between central warehouses and remote clinics.
Track-and-trace systems and low-cost data loggers are especially useful for temperature-sensitive products like insulin or biologics. They help monitor environmental conditions in real-time and flag issues before they result in medicine spoilage or loss.
Generative AI also holds promise: it can optimise delivery routes in real time based on road conditions, weather, transport disruptions (e.g., airport closures), and delivery priorities; an invaluable feature in LMIC contexts where unpredictability is common.
A real-life example:
In 2021, the Zambia Medicines and Medical Supplies Agency (ZAMMSA) started using USAID’s Dispatch Optimization Tool, a dynamic routing system that generates delivery plans based on real‑time changes, like order volumes, vehicle availability, and road conditions. Routes are displayed on maps and exported as driver-friendly Excel sheets. In practice, this tool helped streamline deliveries to remote facilities and improve responsiveness without overhauling existing logistics infrastructure. For more information, For more information, read the USAID’s report on the next step in planning efficient distribution of health commodities.
Ministries in action: Define delivery standards and work with logistics partners to introduce basic tracking and reporting tools, especially in regions where last-mile challenges are most acute.
3. Improving Inventory Management and End-to-End Visibility
One of the persistent issues in NCD supply chains is a lack of end-to-end visibility, particularly at the facility level. Traditional inventory systems often rely on historical data and can’t respond to real-time changes in demand or stock levels.
Digital inventory systems, such as OpenLMIS (an open-sourced Logistics Management Information Systems), or even SMS-based reporting tools, can support:
- Stock tracking at multiple levels of the supply chain
- Monitoring consumption trends
- Early alerts to avoid expiry-based wastage
AI can support smarter inventory planning in several ways: it can analyse consumption data to detect unusual patterns, like sudden drops or spikes in medicine use at a facility, and flag them for review. This helps teams spot issues early and adjust stock levels before problems arise. AI can also combine data from different sources, such as production timelines, transport delays, or geopolitical disruptions, to anticipate future supply challenges and recommend adjustments to avoid shortages or overstock.
A real-life example:
In Tanzania, the implementation of the Electronic Logistics Management Information System (eLMIS), powered by OpenLMIS, contributed to a notable drop in stockout rates: from 32% to 23% across all product categories.
Ministries in action: Establish visibility standards within NCD programmes and invest in scalable, facility-level data collection systems.
4. Improving Procurement Efficiency and Transparency
E-procurement platforms, like The Global Fund’s Wambo for infectious diseases or NCDconnect for NCDs, support more efficient, coordinated purchasing. They improve transparency and reduce manual processing errors, while enabling demand consolidation.
Digital procurement systems help:
- Enable real-time collaboration between partners
- Improve price negotiation through bulk purchasing and long-term agreements
- Mitigate inefficiencies through digital oversight
A real-life example:
NCDconnect is a digital procurement platform tailored for NCD medicines and medical devices, designed with LMIC needs in mind. It allows health authorities and procurement teams to access a curated list of prequalified products aligned with WHO’s Essential Medicines List (EML), plan procurement cycles more effectively, and reduce reliance on emergency or fragmented procurement. Built to integrate into national systems, NCDconnect supports more efficient, transparent, and scalable sourcing of NCD health products.
Ministries in action: Set national procurement priorities and collaborate with partners to align digital platforms with policy and regulatory frameworks.
5. Building National Capacity
Technology alone doesn’t solve systemic issues. Digital systems require trained personnel across warehouse teams, pharmacists, and regional officers, to ensure uptake, sustainability, and impact.
A real-life example:
Africa CDC’s Youth in Digital Health Network (YiDHN) engages young professionals to co-create and lead digital health solutions. Launched at the Africa HealthTech Summit, the initiative supports the development of resilient, digitally enabled health systems and promotes the long-term adoption of digital tools across the continent.
Ministries in action: Co-develop training requirements with partners, embed digital literacy into workforce development plans, and identify champions who can lead implementation locally.
Digital Is a Tool, Not the Goal
Digital supply chain solutions are not an end in themselves: they are enablers. Whether it is using AI to strengthen forecasting, eLMIS platforms to track inventory, or procurement tools like NCDconnect to streamline sourcing, these technologies serve a larger purpose: supporting health systems that keep patients healthy and alive.
By improving visibility, coordination, and responsiveness, digital tools can make supply chains more efficient and resilient. But their impact depends on thoughtful integration, local capacity, and alignment with national goals, not just on the technology itself.
Key Considerations: Your Checklist Before You Go Digital
- Is the solution aligned with your national supply chain strategy?
- Will your team be trained to use it? By whom? And how?
- Who owns the data?
- Is it secure and accessible to the Ministry?
- Is the tool mobile-friendly for district teams?
- Can it support long-term cost savings, not just short-term fixes?